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- 03.02.25 Market Recap
Hmm… Did you know…
Most people assume their 401(k) is working for them, but what if it’s actually costing you thousands in hidden fees and underperformance?
Studies show that 80% of 401(k) holders don’t beat the market, and many don’t even know what they’re invested in.
Do you know what funds your 401k is invested in? |
Do you know if your 401(k) is outperforming or underperforming the market? |
More on this topic later. There is a lot to cover in this weeks market recap. 👍️
Simplify Wall Street:
Institutional-Grade Research Simplified for Everyday Investors & Traders
Table of contents:
📌 What Just Happened?
This week, the market experienced increased volatility as investors reacted to economic data and Presidential commentary.
Economic data & Commentary:
U.S. trade deficit in goods balloons to record high as businesses race to avoid tariffs. Deficit widens to $153 billion in January on 11.9% jump in imports, likely will weigh on Q1 GDP
Trumps Gold Card. Will this benefit you?
SPY Price Summary (Feb 26 - March 1)
Open: 602.02
High: 603.03
Low: 582.44
Close: 594.18
Weekly Change: -0.98%
SPY Relief Bounce Underway?
Key Levels:
These intraday and weekly support and resistance levels, buy/sell alerts, our favorite short term companies and other names that currently have value are included in our Discord.
→ sws
The relief bounce at 582 on Friday is promising for bullish investors, but caution is advised. The market dislikes uncertainty, and fluctuating news can cause significant swings in E-mini futures. If you are adding valuable companies to your portfolio at these, avoid over-allocating.
Geopolitical Tensions
Ongoing tensions between the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia remained a focus. Speculation around Zelensky’s political future added uncertainty to markets.
BREAKING: Zelensky said he is “ready” to step down if it guarantees peace, even suggesting he could “exchange it for NATO membership," per CNN
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales)
10:06 PM • Mar 2, 2025
Context:
Zelensky has been key in Ukraine's resistance against Russia, with strong U.S. support. His leadership symbolizes Ukrainian resilience against Putin. The U.S. backs Zelensky as Ukraine's democratic leader, and his potential departure could create uncertainty about Ukraine's future alignment with the West. For Putin, instability in Kyiv might justify increased pressure or open diplomatic opportunities.
Geopolitical Impact:
Reduced Tensions: A peaceful transition or settlement with Russia could ease tensions, benefiting global markets and equities.
Increased Uncertainty: Political instability might heighten risks, causing market volatility and affecting investor confidence, especially in defense, energy, or emerging markets.
Sector Impacts:
Defense & Energy: Uncertainty might boost defense stocks, while de-escalation could stabilize energy markets.
Global Equities: Stability reduces volatility, benefiting markets, while prolonged instability could weigh on sensitive sectors.
Market Sentiment: Stability is favored by investors. A smooth transition aligning with U.S. and NATO expectations could boost confidence and markets, while a power vacuum or conflict escalation might negatively impact markets short-term.
Upcoming Data
THURSDAY, MARCH 6 | MEDIAN FORECAST | PREVIOUS | ||
8:30 am | Initial jobless claims | March 1 | 243,000 | 242,000 |
📘 Stock Market Education: Understanding Market Cycles & Key Levels
The stock market moves in cycles, and recognizing these phases can help traders and investors make better decisions. Let’s break down market cycles and how to use key levels in trading.
📊 The 4 Market Cycles You Need to Know
1️⃣ Accumulation Phase (Smart Money Buys In)
Happens after a major sell-off or bear market.
Big investors (institutions, hedge funds) start buying while the public is fearful.
Signs: Low volatility, sideways price action, increasing volume.
Example: March 2020 lows after COVID sell-off.
2️⃣ Markup Phase (Trending Up)
Prices start rising as confidence returns.
More investors pile in, creating a strong uptrend.
Signs: Higher highs, higher lows, strong breakouts.
Example: 2020-2021 bull market rally.
3️⃣ Distribution Phase (Smart Money Sells)
Market is at peak euphoria—everyone is bullish.
Big institutions start offloading shares to retail investors.
Signs: Choppy price action, increased volatility, weakening uptrend.
Example: Late 2021 before the 2022 sell-off.
4️⃣ Markdown Phase (Downtrend Begins)
Market begins declining as fear spreads.
Retail investors panic sell while smart money waits for lower prices.
Signs: Lower highs, lower lows, big red candles.
Example: 2022 bear market.
📌 Takeaway for Traders
Many investors and short term traders will adjustments based upon news and market waves.
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📢 Track our Investments & Trades
🔥 How Our Trades Performed This Week:
✔️ /E-Mini S&P Futures (/ES)
Long 5966
Sold for 5999
+$1,650 per contract on the trade. +0.28% total gain on the position
This company was alerted in our premium Discord.
📲 Want real-time trade alerts? Upgrade Here
📢 What do you know about Uber?
Is it a buy at these levels?
Is it a value or growth company?
How much money does it really make?
Find out now with our Deep Dive Investment Research on Uber.
Investment Thesis
Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER) is at a pivotal juncture. With its established ride-hailing platform and expanding forays into food delivery, logistics, and autonomous vehicle (AV) technology, Uber is positioning itself for long-term growth. However, regulatory challenges, stiff competition, and high R&D costs for AV technology present short-term risks that investors need to monitor closely.
Investment Thesis
Key Financials & Growth Trends
Valuation & Competitive Analysis
Key Strategic Developments
Autonomous Vehicle Partnerships
Global Expansion & Regulatory Environment
Diversification in Mobility & Delivery
Key Risks & Catalysts
Bearish Risks
Bullish Catalysts
Investment Stance: Cautious Optimism
Personal Investment Perspective
Key Financials & Growth Trends
Q4 2024 Earnings Snapshot:
Revenue: $8.9B (up 12% YoY)
Adjusted EPS: $0.15 (beat estimates)
Segment Highlights:
Ride-hailing revenue grew 8%
Delivery revenue surged 20%
📉 Market Reaction:
Following strong Q4 results, Uber’s stock appreciated by 3%, reflecting growing investor confidence in its diversified business model.
📈 Key Growth Driver:
Expansion into autonomous ride-hailing and accelerated growth in international markets—especially in food delivery—are driving the company’s growth prospects.
Valuation & Competitive Analysis
Current Trading Price: $76.01 as of 03.01.25
Valuation Metrics (Comparative Overview):
Company | P/E Ratio (Forward) | Revenue Growth YoY | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
Uber (UBER) | XXX | XXX | XXX |
XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX |
XXX | XXX | XXX | XXX |
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