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▶️ Risk Management Education

📰 Market Context

📉 Investment ideas & Trading setups 

Context

Side by Side

NVDA, SMCI, META: Sold off

$AAPL, TSLA, AMZN: Held range

$SPY: Bullish Consolidation

What does this mean?

Lately it’s like $SPY has only been bullish on AI, and companies that have not mentioned artificial intelligence have been either in a downtrend or stagnant.

I am looking for a rotation into AAPL and AMZN or a collaborative effort by all of the tech leaders for SPY to trade higher.

What is my bearish outlook?

If NVDA and AAPL are both weak the market can sell off in a hurry. If one stays strong, then SPY can consolidate or pullbacks would be expected to be bought. If both become strong, it gives the vibe of a ‘final big push’ into the spring/summer.

$META and Tiktok.

Key detail for me is the house voted 50-0 in favor to ban Tiktok.

Biden said, summarizing his words,
if congress passes the bill he will vote to ban Tiktok as well. If this is banned, Meta can gap 50 points.
If not Meta may drop and consolidate until it decides to follow the general market trend.

Feds + Data

The Feds announce rate cut adjustments on March 19-20th during their Fed meeting. There's always a pre-news move and a post-news move.

CPI data is this morning at 8:30 am | PPI is Thursday at 8:30 am

Trading Levels

Many levels are already working.
$NFLX above 600.
AMZN held 169.
GOOGL we said above 134 is bullish. Now 139.

/ES mini, 
Levels for June contracts—Not march contracts.
Most trading platforms switch automatically.

If weakness appears in both AAPL and NVDA, I expect 5100-5120 to come if CPI data is bad. If CPI is bad, but AAPL is still finding buyers above 169, we can see buyers arrive near 5150-55s.

If CPI data is good, we can see 5230s.
Longer term bulls want a close above 5190s. If under, it could be a sell the news event later in the week.

Now trading 5194

Keep in mind you can scalp using these levels (preferred in this market over a buy and hold strategy), but you can also use /ES levels to navigate the market while trading options on other companies.

$AMZN— If 173 acts as resistance, this can test 169. If the general market reverses, above 174 can lead to 177 or 180. Best to see where CPI data takes us.

$TSLA—If we start closing under 169, the downside levels are 140 and 125. Now 179. Support has held. If CPI is bad we can watch for 169 level to hold again to go bullish until support is proven to be broken.

I am not predicting a bottom, but in the short term, leading up to the Fed meeting, $TSLA could recapture some key resistance levels like 185 and 190. We added $TSLA $TSLA 205c, expiring March 22nd. We will continue to hold our April calls as well.

Based upon this development, if there is no recovery above 204 after the Fed meeting, $TSLA’s big move may be delayed until the summer/fall.

$BABA— We added more shares to our equity swing and to the investment account at $74. I am betting on a China recovery.

NOTE:

Options are great, but sometimes equity is the best tool for a certain trade.