How to Time the Market in a Trump Presidency

In a market ruled by policy and headlines, this post shows you how to position before the wave—not after.

Author

Simplify Wall Street
June 29, 2025

If you're into stock market strategy, you're probably also the kind of person who studies what works — especially in marketing.

📬 That’s why I recommend Ad Catalyst: a free newsletter where 11,000+ subscribers get breakdowns of real, profitable ads sent straight to their inbox. With Ad Catalyst, you’ll know what’s working and why it matters.

📰 4 Market Reads to Catch You Up
-New to Investing? Start here. The Stock Market Isn’t a Casino, It’s a store.
-Recession, Inflation, War? What This Chaos Really Means for Your Stocks
-Why Cash Flow Matters More Than Headlines in 2025
-What I Told a Retiree Who Asked Me, How to Invest $30,000 in 2025

🧭 How to Time the Wave in a Trump Presidency

🏦 What Just Happened with the Fed?

  • The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25–4.50%. That’s not surprising—but the real story is what comes next.

    • Powell’s message was: “We’re not rushing into rate cuts. Let’s see what inflation and jobs data say first.”

    • Inside the Fed, there’s growing disagreement:

    • Some members (like Powell, Barkin, Collins) want to wait longer. Others (like Bowman, Waller) are pushing for cuts this summer if inflation stays low.

  • The latest data is sending confusing messages:

    • Inflation (measured by something called core PCE) is still a bit high — prices rose 2.7% compared to last year.

    • But at the same time, people are earning and spending less — which usually means the economy is slowing down.

🧭 How to Position Yourself When the Fed Shifts

In a Trump-influenced market, headlines move faster than logic. If you want to stay ahead of rate changes, here’s how to think like a pro without overcomplicating it:

🔍 1. Watch the Doves

Names to know: Bowman and Waller. If they start dropping hints about a July rate cut, that’s your early signal.
These are the dovish voices—meaning they’re more open to cutting rates soon.

📊 2. Know What Stocks React Best

Growth stocks (tech, software) tend to rally when rate cuts are expected.
Value stocks (energy, banks, businesses with stable cash flow or dividend) might jump on conflict or inflation fears.
More here, Growth vs Value.

📝 What to Watch Right Now (Real-Time Triggers)

📅 Timeframe

🔍 What to Watch

📌 Why It Matters

June–August

Inflation & labor data

Key to whether the Fed can justify a cut

Any day

Trump announcements (tariffs, foreign policy)

Can flip market mood instantly

July 29–30

FOMC meeting + projections

Look for new “dot plot” guidance

Coming weeks

Powell testifying before Congress

Could show if Trump is pressuring the Fed

Oil Prices

Rise = inflation risk; Drop = deflation signal

Impacts how soon and how deep cuts can go

💬 Bottom Line:
You don’t have to predict the Fed—you just need to follow the action. Most people fail becuase by the time they want to invest or trade the market they are stopping into an unknown battle field. Wall Street is like playing for a sport. YOU HAVE TO STUDY TAPE ON YOUR OPPONENT TO SURVIVE.

Equity Swing Trades

Recently Shared:

New Deep Dive $INTC is here! 
View More Deep Dives.

Read if we are bullish or bearish on the market below. 👇️ 

We’re just getting started.

Simplifying your investing and trading is easier with the right insights at hand.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.

Simplifying Wall Street 1 Tool At A Time:

  • • ✅ Follow fully curated watchlists with step-by-step action plans.
  • • 📊 Access weekly deep-dive research on companies hitting our radar.
  • • 📈 Get real-time buy & sell alerts — straight to your email.
  • • 👀 Curious about our beta screening and analyzation tools?

Reply

or to participate.