šŸ’”Stock Market Weekly Journal | 12.10.23

šŸ’”Interesting Tweet of the week:

Before we dive into our weekly analysis, I would like to thank our partner, We Study Markets, for providing some informative content.

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Sip your ā˜•, unfold the šŸ“° ā€“ Simplified stock market analysis served during Sunday's sunrise. šŸŒ…

Analysis

Record Highs in Early 2024?

Since there is only one more Fed meeting for the remainder of the year, Powell may decide the market's destiny for the remainder of the year. Some information is, of course, opinionated, but letā€™s start with the facts.

  • The market has appeared very resilient. Jobless claims came in low near 220,000, which does not scream recession, and the S&P500 closed above 4600 on the week. (Jobless claims report)

  • QQQ, /NQ, $SPY may all imply we will break out to new highs, but I think itā€™s less about the index and the Magnificent 7 companies that move the market (AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, META, MSFT), and more the news that comes out when we trade into the highs or while the market is searching for support.

  • $APPL at highs

    $MSFT at highs

If we are to break all-time highs by February, /ES needs to make this zone the new norm of support, creating a continued uptrend. Below it will cause more selling.

E-mini

If this is not tested, the rally into the 4700s can be great for short-term traders but may be short-lived. A key component of this rally is looking for companies crossing key pivots. Though the SPY can break out, not all stocks incorporated in the S&P500 are treated equally.

So, when is the best time to invest in stocks?
Read Here.

News starts with the Federal Reserve interest-rate decision on Wednesday.

House Notes

  • We do not predict market crashes. If you are here for that, you are subscribed for the wrong reason.

  • We provide thoughts on market cycles, pivots, and how to handle market volatility.

Economic Insights

Soft Landing Breakdown

In a simplified ideal scenario for a soft landing:

  1. No More Rate Hikes: 

  2. Possible Rate Cuts: 

  3. Jobless Claims Stay Low or Decrease: Low jobless claims indicate a positive job market and boost economic confidence.

  4. Interest Rates Decrease: To boost economic activity, the central bank may lower interest rates, making borrowing more appealing for businesses and consumers.

  5. Cost of Living Stability: Ideally, living costs stabilize or rise moderately by managing inflation to prevent rapid erosion of consumer purchasing power.

A "soft landing" is about managing the economy to avoid a sharp downturn or recession while keeping inflation and other economic indicators in check.

The soft landing is less about the rate cuts and more about how the middle and lower classes feel during the process. The reality is they will feel it the most out of everyone. $100,000 a year is no longer enough to afford a new mortgage. An apartment is $2k+ a month in most locations. With all of this being said, many are bullish on the economy.

How will the cost of living decrease when stock prices and the housing market are currently overpriced and bullish? If the Fed starts cutting rates, costs will increase as stocks rise.

For this reason, there is a win-or-lose option for the wealthy, but for others, it's a lose-lose situation. We talked about this in our reverse market crash blog.

Dead Dollar

More on this below! Listen to all perspectives.

Other interesting news for the weekend

For (current and new) Investors

Best Time To Invest?

Lebron James Nba GIF by Uninterrupted

Staying Informed + Plenty of Opportunities

We write weekly newsletters to make sure readers are informed from all sides and not just the standard ā€˜everything is fineā€™ or ā€˜everything is badā€™ news coming from many mainstream broadcasts.

In the midst of uncertainty there are many stocks to buy and places to stash money to ensure growth. Here are a couple:

High Yield Savings

Value Stocks:

The Coca-Cola Company (KO):A beverage giant with a globally recognized brand and diverse product portfolio.

The Home Depot, Inc. (HD):A home improvement retailer, particularly relevant in times of increased focus on home-related investments.

Walmart Inc. (WMT): The world's largest retailer, offering a wide range of products and services.

Little By Little

Investing isnā€™t putting all of your money in a one time.

Itā€™s about finding funding a retirement little-by-little, or building out a portfolio one step at a time. Each month I would gather levels and write it down. If levels are touched, I add another portion of extra cash into that company, etf or savings.

This is not financial advice, SWS will never tell you to buy or sell anything, but I will tell you if you donā€™t have a plan, get one.

SWS

Imagine getting details notes like this 3-5 times a week for $15 per month! āœØ 

Prices will go back to $30/m in 2024.

TRADE ALERT šŸšØ RECAP

TRADING CHAT RESULTS

Golden Play:
Bought at 4575 & sold all at 4610.
This is a 35-point move. Each point is $50. $1,750 per contract.

$MRNA & $SQ have been big winners:

Bought $SQ for $36. Now $170 per option contract. $MRNA now 84 from 64.

Did you make money in the stock market this month?

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