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- 💡Stock Market Weekly Journal | 12.10.23
💡Stock Market Weekly Journal | 12.10.23
Simplify Wall Street & Dead Dollar
December 10, 2023
💡Interesting Tweet of the week:
Before we dive into our weekly analysis, I would like to thank our partner, We Study Markets, for providing some informative content.
Our notes and lessons from Home Depot co-founder Ken Langone:
1. Keep going: Langone said he almost went broke in 1970, when he was 35. He'd "weed the garden and cry," but he stayed in the game and didn't quit his investing career.
2. Around the Flash Crash of 1962, Langone saw… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
— We Study Markets (@WSM_TIP)
9:29 PM • Dec 7, 2023
"If you are not aggressive, you are not going to make money, and if you are not defensive, you are not going to keep money."
— Ray Dalio
— We Study Markets (@WSM_TIP)
4:43 PM • Dec 7, 2023
🎙️ For years, The Investor’s Podcast Network has chatted with the world’s best investors. With 100+ million downloads, they make podcasts by investors, for investors.
Now, they’re joining the newsletter space. Get smarter about markets and investing by reading their expert insights daily.
ON-TAP
Sip your ☕, unfold the 📰 – Simplified stock market analysis served during Sunday's sunrise. 🌅
Analysis
Record Highs in Early 2024?
Since there is only one more Fed meeting for the remainder of the year, Powell may decide the market's destiny for the remainder of the year. Some information is, of course, opinionated, but let’s start with the facts.
The market has appeared very resilient. Jobless claims came in low near 220,000, which does not scream recession, and the S&P500 closed above 4600 on the week. (Jobless claims report)
QQQ, /NQ, $SPY may all imply we will break out to new highs, but I think it’s less about the index and the Magnificent 7 companies that move the market (AMZN, GOOGL, TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, META, MSFT), and more the news that comes out when we trade into the highs or while the market is searching for support.
$APPL at highs
$MSFT at highs
If we are to break all-time highs by February, /ES needs to make this zone the new norm of support, creating a continued uptrend. Below it will cause more selling.
E-mini
If this is not tested, the rally into the 4700s can be great for short-term traders but may be short-lived. A key component of this rally is looking for companies crossing key pivots. Though the SPY can break out, not all stocks incorporated in the S&P500 are treated equally.
So, when is the best time to invest in stocks?
Read Here.
News starts with the Federal Reserve interest-rate decision on Wednesday.
House Notes
We do not predict market crashes. If you are here for that, you are subscribed for the wrong reason.
We provide thoughts on market cycles, pivots, and how to handle market volatility.
Economic Insights
Soft Landing Breakdown
In a simplified ideal scenario for a soft landing:
No More Rate Hikes:
Possible Rate Cuts:
Jobless Claims Stay Low or Decrease: Low jobless claims indicate a positive job market and boost economic confidence.
Interest Rates Decrease: To boost economic activity, the central bank may lower interest rates, making borrowing more appealing for businesses and consumers.
Cost of Living Stability: Ideally, living costs stabilize or rise moderately by managing inflation to prevent rapid erosion of consumer purchasing power.
A "soft landing" is about managing the economy to avoid a sharp downturn or recession while keeping inflation and other economic indicators in check.
The soft landing is less about the rate cuts and more about how the middle and lower classes feel during the process. The reality is they will feel it the most out of everyone. $100,000 a year is no longer enough to afford a new mortgage. An apartment is $2k+ a month in most locations. With all of this being said, many are bullish on the economy.
How will the cost of living decrease when stock prices and the housing market are currently overpriced and bullish? If the Fed starts cutting rates, costs will increase as stocks rise.
For this reason, there is a win-or-lose option for the wealthy, but for others, it's a lose-lose situation. We talked about this in our reverse market crash blog.
More on this below! Listen to all perspectives.
Other interesting news for the weekend
For (current and new) Investors
Best Time To Invest?
Staying Informed + Plenty of Opportunities
We write weekly newsletters to make sure readers are informed from all sides and not just the standard ‘everything is fine’ or ‘everything is bad’ news coming from many mainstream broadcasts.
In the midst of uncertainty there are many stocks to buy and places to stash money to ensure growth. Here are a couple:
High Yield Savings
Value Stocks:
The Coca-Cola Company (KO):A beverage giant with a globally recognized brand and diverse product portfolio.
The Home Depot, Inc. (HD):A home improvement retailer, particularly relevant in times of increased focus on home-related investments.
Walmart Inc. (WMT): The world's largest retailer, offering a wide range of products and services.
Stocks On Mentioned in Premium:
Little By Little
Investing isn’t putting all of your money in a one time.
It’s about finding funding a retirement little-by-little, or building out a portfolio one step at a time. Each month I would gather levels and write it down. If levels are touched, I add another portion of extra cash into that company, etf or savings.
This is not financial advice, SWS will never tell you to buy or sell anything, but I will tell you if you don’t have a plan, get one.
Imagine getting details notes like this 3-5 times a week for $15 per month! ✨
Prices will go back to $30/m in 2024.
TRADE ALERT 🚨 RECAP
TRADING CHAT RESULTS
Golden Play:
Bought at 4575 & sold all at 4610.
This is a 35-point move. Each point is $50. $1,750 per contract.
$MRNA & $SQ have been big winners:
Bought $SQ for $36. Now $170 per option contract. $MRNA now 84 from 64.
Did you make money in the stock market this month? |
Long-term portfolio addition
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