^ON-TAP

FOCUS - THE MOMENT OF TRUTH ⭐

• Observations

• Intraday /ES Levels

• Upcoming Data

• Cash Balance (Audio Recording, Listen HERE)

New Weekend Reads!

1. Crafting Your Ideal Financial Retirement Blueprint

^OBSERVATIONS

NOT ALL DEMAND ZONES ARE THE SAME

We are at a key demand level, trading at 4130.

The majority of trades expect an immediate bounce when a level is touched, and yes, this may be true for some scenarios; the reality is that the characteristics of a mid-term bottom are letting the market take the time to find its footing as it searches for value.

Before continuing, we do want to say “WE WERE RIGHT”! There were many newsletters and Twitter experts that said we would not trade 4150s, and our newsletter was one of the few that stated, “Be Patient and wait for lower levels.”

Past Blogs:

OBSERVATION

When traders talk about observing the market after a key level is tested, they are looking for a crucial turning point or confirmation. For instance, if a stock is approaching a support level at $50, traders want to see if the price bounces off this level, signifying strong support and a potential buying opportunity. Conversely, if the price breaks below $50, it could be a signal to sell, indicating a possible downtrend.

Other characteristics include a daily and weekly close above said level and the timing of the selling. (Before or after an earnings report or major policy change)

The key is to watch for price action and volume to confirm the market's sentiment and make informed trading decisions. This observation helps traders determine whether the market is likely to continue in its current direction or reverse, allowing them to adapt their strategies accordingly.

^{Earnings Season}

Upcoming Earnings

$AAPL - 11/02/23

EPS Normalized Estimate - $1.39
EPS GAAP Estimate - $1.39
Revenue Estimate - $89.35B

We will revisit notes on this company as we get closer to the reporting date. Our key concern is whether AAPL positively turns the market or fuels the fire.

FOMC Report

October 31-November 1st
The Fed will make an interest rate decision next week.

Latest Fed Moves:

• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the same interest rates in their latest meeting held in September 2023.

• In July 2023, the FOMC increased interest rates to a range of 5.25%–5.50%.

• While there was a temporary rate pause in June, it was widely expected that the FOMC would implement a quarter-point rate hike in the July meeting. This decision aligned with the Federal Reserve's commitment to achieving maximum employment and price stability.

• Market experts generally agree on the likelihood of the Fed implementing one additional 25-basis-point rate increase within the current year. This move is seen as a measure to curb inflation and align it with the Fed's 2% target.

Most Recent FOMC Conference:

^{DATA RELEASE}

All About The Data!

THURSDAY, NOV 2nd

• 8:30 am: Initial jobless claims

• Forecast: 215,000 Previous: 210,000

FRIDAY, OCT 27

• 8:30 am: U.S. nonfarm payrolls

• Forecast: 175,000 Previous: 336,000

^{INTRADAY SESSION PLAN}

INTRADAY TRADING LEVELS

Our level of 4180 was finally tested, and we alerted in chat a bullish position at 4160. (E-mini now trading 4130)

Our key levels will be 4120 and 4200. If we start closing under our support, we can see 4070s and 3930s. If we start having closes above 4200, there may be room for a 4260 test. If we trade into the 4200s+, I would make a daily close under a signal for softness.

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Don’t Forget!

If you haven’t already listened to our ‘WALK IN THE PARK CONVERSATION,’ (Properly manage your account, and never overextend yourself!)

• Audio Recording: Listen HERE