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Otherwise dive into our interesting take on where we are economically. 👍️ 👇️ 

📜 Part 1: How We Got Here

Good afternoon, everyone.
Today we're going to unpack how trade wars, inflation, and global economic shifts have collided to reshape markets — and why everything you invest in today feels different than it did just five years ago.

Let’s start simple:

In the post-World War II era, the U.S. built the global trade system around one idea:

Globalization exploded.

• Cheap labor from China.

• Manufacturing hubs in Mexico, Vietnam, India.

• The U.S. outsourced production and imported goods back.

Result?

• Cheap iPhones.

• $20 microwaves.

• Inflation was practically dead from 1990–2015.

Now enter 2018 — the beginning of the first real cracks:

President Trump launched tariffs on Chinese goods, citing:

• Unfair trade practices.

• Intellectual property theft.

• Imbalanced deficits.

China retaliated.
Europe took sides carefully.
The supply chain, once invisible, suddenly mattered.

At first?
Markets shrugged it off.
“Temporary pain,” Wall Street said.

But underneath:
The old global system was dying.
We didn’t know it yet.

📈 Part 2: COVID — The Great Economic X-Ray

When COVID hit in 2020, it exposed how fragile globalization had become:

• No masks.

• No semiconductors.

• No toilet paper.

Supply chains froze.
And central banks (led by the U.S. Federal Reserve) printed — trillions.

Inflation, long thought extinct, roared back.

The Fed misread it.
They said it was "transitory."
It wasn’t.

This is key:
COVID didn't create inflation.
It revealed the vulnerabilities caused by decades of offshoring and easy money.

🔥 Part 3: The Second Trade War — Tariffs 2.0

Fast forward to 2024–2025.

Trump, back in the political spotlight, escalates tariffs again:

• 10%–125% tariffs across China, Mexico, Canada.

• Targeted sectors: Tech, agriculture, industrials.

China retaliates:

• 84% tariffs on U.S. goods.

• Pushes harder into domestic semiconductor production (Ascend chips, DeepSeek models).

What's different this time?

• Tariffs are broader — not just steel and washing machines.

• Inflation already exists — tariffs risk pouring gasoline on it.

• Allies (Europe, Japan) aren't necessarily following U.S. leadership this time.

🧠 Part 4: What Most People Miss (And Why It Matters)

You will hear:
"Tariffs protect American jobs."
Reality:
Tariffs are an inflation tax on consumers first, manufacturers second.

Example:

• If you add a 50% tariff to Chinese electronics, Best Buy raises prices, not China.

• You pay more for a laptop or phone.

• Wages don’t magically rise with prices.

The deeper consequence:

• Tariffs force companies to restructure supply chains — expensive and slow.

• Investors must now factor in permanent price instability, not the stable globalization model of the past.

🌐 Part 5: Macro Lessons for Investors (If You’re Smart)

Here’s what the macro lens now demands:

🛡️ Final Thought:

Globalization as you knew it — cheap goods, low inflation, frictionless trade —
is being replaced by regionalism and inflation volatility.

Invest like you are navigating a ship through changing tides —
not driving a Tesla on cruise control anymore.

📚 Closing Summary

• Trade Wars are not temporary events — they are structural changes.

• Inflation is no longer purely a monetary phenomenon — it’s supply chain + policy driven.

• Investing in the 2020s is about understanding geopolitics, not just P/E ratios.

• Simplify your strategy:
  Own companies that control supply chains, pricing power, and innovation.

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