Understanding The Data! Consumer & Wholesale Numbers + Winning Investments

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For new readers or those curious about the success of our trading strategies, here's a recap of some key companies we've highlighted in the premium section that you may have overlooked.

$PLTR—It was given 7 months ago at $13! We reiterated the recommendation to accumulate at 20 and 25. It is now trading at 34.

$CHWY was a long-term addition by us at $16 and $20. Now trading $30.

$BABA was an equity swing. Alerted at $73, now $84

$EVRI was an equity swing. Bought at $10, now $13.

Recently, our option trades have been less frequent, but small gains have been made. $COIN +30% $AMD +25% return (then stopped out at half of the position at break-even).

We also gave a warning early June to stop shorting the market at $SPY $518.This advice was timely and important, as we rallied to $565 weeks later, saving potential losses for many.

Afterwards, we said “ No Longs,” and we dropped down to $510.

Trading is only sometimes about gaining money. It’s 90% knowing how not to lose money first.

Note. Equity swings take months at a time. Some of these were trades held on for months.

We took a brief break from short-term trading and focused on accumulating equity. Opportunities are coming.

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Newly Released Data

The Producer Price Index, which measures average price changes seen by producers and manufacturers, markedly slowed in August to a rate of 1.7% from an annual increase of 2.1% the month before, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Thursday.

The Consumer Price Index, a measurement of price changes for a commonly purchased basket of goods and services, briskly retreated from a 2.9% annual increase in July to 2.5% in August, marking the lowest annual increase since February 2021 and landing at a rate that matched the average seen in 2018.

If you didn’t know, now you will!

Consumer vs Wholesale Inflation?

Consumer Inflation (CPI)

  • What it is: CPI measures how much prices for things like food, rent, and clothes go up or down.

  • Impact on People: If CPI rises, things get more expensive. You might struggle to afford as much, and your money doesn’t go as far.

  • Impact on the Stock Market: High CPI could mean higher interest rates. This makes it harder for businesses to borrow money, leading to lower profits and potentially falling stock prices.

Wholesale Inflation (PPI)

  • What it is: PPI tracks how much prices are changing for businesses that produce goods, like factories.

  • Impact on Businesses: If PPI rises, it costs companies more to make things. They might charge customers more, but if they can’t, their profits shrink.

  • Impact on the Stock Market: Higher PPI can hurt stocks, especially for companies that can't pass costs to consumers. Lower PPI can make businesses more profitable, leading to optimism in the stock market.

How do these affect people like you and me?

How These Affect the Stock Market and People

  1. Inflation’s Impact on Consumers:

    • High inflation erodes purchasing power, leading to less consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy. Reduced consumer spending can lead to lower company revenues, layoffs, and an economic slowdown.

    • If wages don’t rise at the same pace as consumer inflation, people might find it harder to afford essentials, leading to lower savings and an increased reliance on debt.

  2. Inflation’s Impact on Businesses and the Stock Market:

    • Rising production costs (wholesale inflation) without the ability to pass them onto consumers may squeeze profit margins, leading to lower stock valuations.

    • Companies in sectors like energy, raw materials, and commodities might benefit from inflation because their products rise in price, but others, especially in consumer goods, could struggle.

    • Inflation generally leads to central banks raising interest rates, which increases the cost of borrowing, slows down corporate investment, and can lower future earnings expectations, causing stock prices to fall.

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