Weekly Trading Notes 07-24-23

Weekly Trading Notes 07-24-23

I always ask myself, “What are the challenges this week, and what are the expectations.”

CHALLENGES

1. Volatility will be at its highest.

   • FOMC on Wednesday

   • The Market is expecting rate hikes of 25 bp

   • Anything above 25bp can cause an increase in downside momentum.

   • $MSFT earnings on Tuesday

Why is this a challenge? When you have news on top of information, reversals and trend continuations increase in range.

THE SAFE TRADE

The safe trade is to wait until Wednesday and either buy the early week dip going into FOMC or sell the rip after an early week of bullish activity. However, my turning date for me to believe ‘the top is in’ is not this week.

On a longer time frame, the 4280s becomes a place of interest. If this level is tested and held, the market may shock individuals trading into new all-time highs.

Why?

• It took weeks to break above this level

• When we did, we soard +200 points

• It will look bullish if it consolidates near this area for weeks again.

LEVELS

$NFLX

• 404 is my new line in the sand under 430. If 430 is recovered, we could test 450

$TSLA

• 260 is still my line in the sand if I am bullish.

• A daily close under 260 means 230, and 190 may be nearby. If $TSLA support fails, I will either wait until it closes above 260 or trade 230.

• I am already long in runners from our previous position. To build my conviction for $TSLA to trade 300+ I prefer to see a weekly close above 235-240.

$MSFT,

• earnings Tuesday

• If the cloud system did well, then $MSFT should guide up during their earnings report.

/ES,

• Generally, I expect the market to trade lower or, at most, flat into FOMC. If we are trading near lows of 4500 but above 4520, we could trade 4550s.

• If I am day trading /es mini futures or $SPX/$SPY, I wait for $MSFT earnings and observe how it affects the market.

• /ES under 4550 is 4490. I would look for an upside intraday bounce there for a scalp.

• 4430 would be my target to long the market. I am not looking to short the market with /es, but depending on if we are above 4612 before the FOMC CPI release, I may use $SPX puts to hedge my long swings.

Continue Reading? AMC, $SQ, PLTR, AMC $ALGN, UBER

We’re just getting started.